Mid-term elections are seen as a referendum on the sitting president. The 2018 election may prove to be a reckoning for President Donald Trump and the Republican party. While the election will not prove to be a reckoning for the GOP in Arizona, the state will play an important role in the balance of political power in Congress.
Democrats likely to pick up one House seat
FiveThirtyEight predicts that the Democrats have a greater than 85 percent chance at retaking the House of Representatives. Using an 80 percent confidence interval, Democrats are expected to pick up between 21 and 59 seats. While it seems unlikely, it is not impossible that the Democrats fall just short of the necessary 24 seats they need to pick up in order to retake the House.
In order to retake the House, Democratic candidates need to flip Republican-held seats across the country. Of Arizona’s nine congressional districts, Republicans and Democrats are both expected to maintain control of four seats each. However, it appears that CD2 will flip from Republican to Democratic control.
The seat is currently held Martha McSally, who is not seeking reelection in order to run for Senate. In 2016, Rep. McSally defeated Democratic candidate Matt Heinz with 57 percent of the vote. FiveThirtyEight predicts that Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick will defeat Republican Lea Marquez Peterson by roughly 10 percent.
Possibility to flip a Senate seat blue
The Senate race to replace retiring Senator Jeff Flake is neck-and-neck between two congresswomen: Republican Martha McSally and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. Both are incredibly accomplished women who attempted to stake a reputation as a moderate in the House of Representatives.
FiveThirtyEight rates the race as a lean democratic with a 5 in 8 chance for Sinema. However, the forecasted vote share is incredibly tight with expected to win by just 1.6 percent.
Arizona will hold a special election in 2020 for the seat currently held by Jon Kyl who was appointed by Governor Doug Ducey after the death of John McCain. Therefore, the loser in Tuesday’s election could attempt to run for Senate again, although she will assuredly face a primary challenger from the extreme end of her party.
Near impossibility to unseat Governor Ducey
While the congressional elections look as good as they ever have for Democrats in Arizona, the same cannot be said for the gubernatorial race.
Governor Doug Ducey is running for reelection and is poised to win handily. In 2012 Ducey defeated Fred DuVal with 53.4 percent of the vote.
FiveThirtyEight gives Ducey a 79 in 80 chance of winning reelection. He is expected to outperform his 2012 victory when he defeated Fred DuVal with 53.4 percent of the vote. The forecasted vote share this time is 55.9 percent for Ducey and 42.2 percent for Democratic candidate David Garcia.